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Flashforward and leadership
Posted on: Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Over the last few weeks I have become quite an avid viewer of the TV series FlashForward.
For those of you not in the know the premise of the series is that everyone on earth suffered a black out for two minutes and seventeen seconds at the same time on the same day. During that black out all of them experienced a dream about their future life on the same day some two months ahead (forgive me fans of the series if I have the numbers somewhat wrong I’m writing this from memory). The series is all about understanding how the black out came about and whether the future they saw (including seeing nothing which presumably means you will be dead) is likely to be realised.
The reason I mention this is that I have been spending the last few days traveling the UK speaking at conferences and it occurred to me that, along will my fellow speakers, I was playing the FlashForward game without fully taking into account its consequences.
Here is how most of out conference speeches went;
- I have seen the future and you will die.
- The good news is that I can help you survive/live longer.
- All you have to do is what I tell you to do.
I have to admit, Jim Collins whom I had the honor of sharing, if not a platform at least a conference hall, with this week is a particular master at this narrative having plenty of what he calls ‘empirical facts’ (are there ever any other types?) about ‘how the mighty fall’. You cant really fail but be moved by such stark warnings expressed so eloquently and argued so vehemently.
But here are the problems with this approach so well brought to life by FlashForward.
There is an embedded assumption (stated or otherwise) in this discourse and it is that you are never the victim of circumstances - as Collins put it earlier this week: ‘it’s not the cards you have been dealt that matter but how you decide to play them’. I have a problem with that assumption. Whilst it fits our desire to feel in control (and as such helps writers like me sell books) It doesn’t really stand up to scrutiny.
As I might have said less politely but will rephrase for the purpose of this blog - stuff does happen. And that stuff is not always within your control.
I would rather sit at the poker table having been dealt four aces rather than just a pair. Yes some people are better players and some are even incredibly good at bluffing their way into good fortune but, as also very eloquently and empirically argued by Gladwell recently in Outliers, the cards you have been dealt (circumstances and luck) do play a part in anyone’s survival.
1. You may be unlucky enough to get an illness. Having got the illness does not make you silly, stupid or reckless (Some illnesses are not always the results of your conduct or behavior).
2. On the other hand, not following a cure might make you silly, stupid and reckless. Even if there is some evidence that your mental state affects your health, you cannot just wish yourself back to good health.
3. You might follow a cure and still die which we would all agree (apart from the more extreme self help writers) that this cannot be your fault either.
Whilst the three statements above are not the same by denying the power of circumstances - by ignoring the cards people have been dealt - we award them the exact same value. We lump them together thereby missing the more intricate nature of the situation we find ourselves in and, more importantly, we risk misdiagnosing the problem.
The second issue with the “you will die” speech is that it can lead to as many dysfunctions as it is designed to address. And here is where, by showing us people’s reactions to the doomsday scenario, FlashForward provides a useful mirror.
Driven by the dire warnings or the reassurance provided by their visions of the future people adopt extreme behaviors. Some focus so hard on avoiding the stated disaster that they miss altogether other problems (focused on avoiding the oncoming traffic they miss the out of control car coming out of the side street). Others who feel safe that they are not in the same dire predicament become complacent to the point of dangerous inaction.
So let me be clear;
- Yes there are mistakes that should be avoided and empirical facts to support them.
- Yes prevention is better than cure and preventative measures can be identified.
- Yes you can get better through hard work and determination.
Yet, what is also true is that stuff will happen that you cannot control.
Some of it will be bad enough that some wont survive however hard they work or listen to the warnings.
The reality of business is that the truth is always more likely to be found in the grey areas. What has happened to others may or may not happen to you irrespective of the choices you make. This is not because you are deluded or mistaken but is simply a reflection of the fact that you are not a sole agent operating in isolation but a member of a complex race interrelating in ever changing conditions.
The best actions are more often than none the measured ones taken after calm, focused and determined reflection. But I guess that would make for a pretty dull speech and sell less books!
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